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Democrats are repudiating FDR’s precedent of détente with Russia – Stephen Cohen

民主党人正在否定罗斯福的与俄罗斯缓和的先例 – Stephen Cohen
Published time: 19 Jan, 2018 13:38



THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES: Winston Churchill (L), US President Franklin D. Roosevelt (C) and Soviet Premier Josef Stalin (R) at the Conference at Yalta. / AFP

国家档案馆:温斯顿·邱吉尔(左)、美国总统富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福(中)和苏联总书记约瑟夫·斯大林(右)在雅尔塔会议。 /法新社

By criminalizing alleged “contacts with the Kremlin” - and by demonizing Russia itself - today’s Democrats are becoming the party of the new and more perilous Cold War.

宣告所谓的“接触克里姆林宫”为非法——妖魔化俄罗斯——今天的(美国)民主党正在成为新的、更危险的冷战的政党。

Stephen F. Cohen, professor emeritus of Russian Studies and Politics (at NYU and Princeton), and John Batchelor hold their (usually) weekly discussions of the new US-Russian Cold War. (Previous installments, now in their fourth year, are at TheNation.com.)

Stephen F. Cohen,是(美国纽约大学和普林斯顿大学)俄罗斯问题研究和政治学名誉教授,John Batchelor(通常)每周开展关于美俄新冷战的讨论。(之前分期举行,现在四年举行一次,在TheNation.com网站上。)
(译者注:John Batchelor Show is a national radio program that covers politics, the economy, world affairs, science news, literature and the arts.)

In light of recent events, from Washington to the false alerts in Hawaii and Japan, Cohen returns to a theme he has explored previously: the ways in which the still-unproven Russia gate allegations, promoted primarily by the Democratic Party, have become the number-one threat to American national security. Historical context is needed, which returns Cohen briefly to related subjects he has also previously discussed with Batchelor.

鉴于最近发生的事件,从华盛顿到夏威夷和日本的假警报,科恩(本文作者)回到他之前探讨过的主题:未经证实的通俄门指控,主要由民主党推动的,已经成为美国国家安全的头号威胁。历史背景也是需要的,这使科恩暂时返回到他之前与Batchelor讨论的相关话题。

This year marks the 70th anniversary of what is usually said to have been the full onset of the long Cold War, in 1948. In fact, 2018 marks the 100th anniversary of US-Russian cold wars, which began with the Russian Civil War when, for the next 15 years, Washington refused to formally recognize the victorious Soviet government - surely a very cold relationship, though one without an arms race. The first of several détente policies - attempts to reduce the dangers inherent in cold war by introducing important elements of cooperation - was initiated by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933, when he formally extended diplomatic recognition to the Soviet Union, then ruled by Stalin. That is, FDR was the father of détente, a circumstance forgotten or disregarded by many Democrats, especially today.

今年是1948年全面爆发的通常被称为“冷战”的第七十周年纪念日。事实上,2018标志着美俄冷战第一百周年,其始于俄国内战,此后的15年里,华盛顿拒绝正式承认胜利的苏联政府,尽管两国之间没有军备竞赛,但两国关系确实非常冷淡。第一批缓和政策——试图通过引入重要领域合作以减少冷战内在的危险——是由罗斯福总统在1933启动,当他正式扩展外交承认苏联,于是苏联由斯大林统治。罗斯福是缓和政策之父,这是一个被许多民主党人遗忘或忽视的事实,特别是在今天。

Three major détentes were pursued later in the 20th century, all by Republican presidents: Eisenhower in the 1950s, Nixon in the 1970s, and by Reagan in the second half of the 1980s, which was so fulsome and successful that he and his Soviet counterpart, Mikhail Gorbachev, thought they had ended the Cold War altogether.

二十世纪后期三大缓和政策继续推进,都是由共和党总统实施的:上世纪50年代的艾森豪威尔、上世纪70年代的尼克松、上世纪80年代后期的里根,这是如此的成功,以致于他和他的苏联对手——米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫——认为他们已经彻底结束了冷战。

And yet today, post–Soviet Russia and the United States are in a new and even more dangerous Cold War, one provoked in no small measure by the Democratic Party, from President Clinton’s winner-take-all policies toward Russia in the 1990s to President Obama’s refusal to cooperate significantly with Moscow against international terrorism, particularly in Syria; the role of his administration in the illegal overthrow of Ukrainian President Yanukovych in 2014 (a coup by any other name); and the still-shadowy role of Obama’s intelligence chiefs, not only those at the FBI, in instigating Russiagate allegations against Donald Trump early in 2016.

然而今天,后苏联的俄罗斯和美国正处于一个新的和更危险的冷战,这很大程度上是由民主党挑起来的,从上世纪90年代克林顿总统对付俄罗斯的赢家通吃政策,到奥巴马总统拒绝莫斯科的国际反恐合作,特别是在叙利亚问题、在2014年非法推翻乌克兰总统亚努科维奇行动(以其他名称政变)中所起的作用、奥巴马的情报头目——不仅仅是联邦调查局——在2016年初煽动通俄门指控唐纳德·特朗普这个事件中幕后所扮演的角色。

(Obama’s so-called “reset” of Russia policy was a kind of pseudo-détente and doomed from the outset. It asked of Moscow, and got, far more than the Obama administration offered; was predicated on the assumption that Vladimir Putin, then prime minister, would not return to the presidency; and was terminated by Obama himself when he broke his promise to his reset partner, then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, by overthrowing Libyan leader Gaddafi.)

(奥巴马所谓的“重新设定”的俄罗斯政策是一种假缓和,从一开始就注定失败。它要求从莫斯科获得的远远超过奥巴马政府付出的;它基于的前提是当时的俄罗斯总理弗拉基米尔·普京不会返回总统职位;它最终被奥巴马自己终结,他打破了他对伙伴的承诺——当时的俄罗斯总统德米特里·梅德韦杰夫——推翻利比亚领导人卡扎菲。)

It should also be remembered that the current plan to “modernize” US nuclear weapons by making them smaller, more precise, and thus more “usable” was launched by the Obama administration.

还应当记住,目前的计划是通过使美国核武器变得更小、更精确、更“实用”,从而实现“现代化”,而这一计划是由奥巴马政府发起的。

Which brings Cohen to President Trump, who, whether Trump fully understood it or not, sought to be the fourth Republican president to initiate a policy of détente - or “cooperate with Russia” - in times of perilous Cold War. In the past, a “dovish” wing of the Democratic Party supported détente, but not this time. Russiagate allegations, still mostly a Democratic project, have been leveled by leading Democrats and their mainstream media against Trump every time he has tried to develop necessary cooperative agreements with President Putin, characterizing those initiatives as disloyal to America, even “treasonous.”

不管特朗普是否完全理解,这将使科恩(本文作者)提醒特朗普总统,不管是谁试图成为第四个在危险的冷战时期启动与俄罗斯缓和或合作的共和党总统。在过去,“鸽派”的民主党支持缓和政策,但现在不了。通俄门指控,仍然是一个重要的民主政治话题,每次当他试图与普京总统推动必要的合作协议的时候,(通俄门)都会被民主党和他们的主流媒体拿来攻击特朗普,抨击这些举措对美国不忠,甚至是“叛逆”。

Still more, the same Democratic actors have increasingly suggested that normal “contacts” with Russia at various levels - a practice traditionally encouraged by pro-détente US leaders - are evidence of “collusion with the Kremlin.” (A particularly egregious example is General Michael Flynn’s “contacts” with a Russian ambassador on behalf of President-elect Trump, a long-standing tradition now being criminalized.) Still worse, criticism of US policy toward Russia since the 1990s, which Cohen and a few other Russia specialists have often expressed, is being equated with “colluding” with Putin’s views, as in the case of a few words by Carter Page - that is, also as disloyal.

更何况,同样的民主党人士越来越认为正常的与俄罗斯各方面“接触”——美国领导人采取的一些传统的前期缓和措施——是“勾结克林姆林宫”的罪证。(一个极端的例子是迈克尔·弗林将军代表当选总统特朗普“联系”俄罗斯大使,一个长期存在的传统现在被判定为法法。)更糟糕的是,自上世纪90年代以来美国对俄罗斯政策——Cohen和其他几位俄罗斯专家经常提及的——的批评被等同于“串通”普京的观点,比如Carter Page的几句话也被认为是背叛。

Until recently, Democratic Russiagate allegations were motivated primarily by a need to explain away and take revenge for Hillary Clinton’s defeat in the 2016 presidential election. Now, however, they are being codified into a Democratic Party program for escalated and indefinite Cold War against Russia, presumably to be a major plank in the party’s appeal to voters in 2018 and 2020, as evidenced by two recent publications: a flagrantly cold-warfare article coauthored by former Vice President Joseph Biden, who is clearly already campaigning for the party’s 2020 presidential nomination, in the current issue of Foreign Affairs; and an even more expansive “report” produced by Democratic Senator Ben Cardin purporting to show that Putin is attacking not only America, as he purportedly did in 2016, but democracies everywhere in the world and that America must respond accordingly.

直到最近,民主党的通俄门指控被大肆宣扬,主要是为希拉里·克林顿在2016的总统选举中的失败辩解和复仇。然而现在他们(通俄门指控)被民主党编入一个针对俄罗斯的扩大化和无限制冷战计划,很可能在2018年和2020年选举时被民主党用来吸引选民,有两个最近的出版物可以证明:由前副总统约瑟夫·拜登合著的公然宣扬冷战冲突的文章出现在《Foreign Affairs》近期期刊里,他显然已经提名为该党2020总统候选人;民主党参议员Ben Cardin的一个更夸张的“报告”声称普京不仅在进攻美国(据称他在2016已经这么干了),而且会进攻全世界更多民主国家,美国必须作出相应反应。

Both are recapitulations of primitive American (and Soviet) “propaganda” that characterized the onset of the early stage of the post-1948 Cold War: full of unbalanced prosecutorial narratives, selective and questionable “facts,” Manichean accounts of Moscow’s behavior, and laden with ideological, not analytical, declarations.

这两个出版物都重现了早期美国(和苏联)的“宣传套路”,它具有1948年冷战初期的特点:充满了片面的叙事手法、有选择性的和可疑的“事实”,把莫斯科的行为扣上摩尼教,大力宣传形态意识而不是理性分析。

Indeed, both suggest that “Putin’s Russia” is an even more fearsome threat than was Soviet Communist Russia. Tellingly, both implicitly deny that Russia has any legitimate national interests abroad and, with strong Russophobic undertones, that it is a nation worthy in any way. Both preclude, of course, any rethinking of US policy toward Russia except for making it more aggressive.

真的,两者都认为“普京的俄罗斯”是比苏联GCZY更可怕的威胁。有趣的是,两者都含蓄地否认俄罗斯在海外有任何合法的国家利益,但它无论如何是一个国家的根本利益,这带有很强的恐俄症。当然,这两者不仅妨碍了美国对俄罗斯政策的反思,反而使它更具侵略性。



These latter approaches to Soviet Russia were eventually tempered or abandoned during the era of détente for the sake of diplomacy, relegated mainly to fringe groups.

在缓和时期为了外交利益,这些后来对付苏联的方法被调和或抛弃,降级为边缘团体。

Now they are becoming the proposed policies of the Democratic Party.

现在他们正在成为民主党的主打政策。 

Leave aside, Cohen continues, the consequences of another prolonged Cold War for a “progressive agenda” at home. Consider instead the supremely existential and real danger of nuclear war, which as Reagan wisely concluded, “cannot be won and therefore must never be fought.” And consider the false alarms of incoming nuclear missiles recently experienced in Hawaii and Japan. These episodes alone should compel any Democratic Party worthy of the name to support Trump’s pro-détente instincts, however inadequate they may be, and urge him to pursue with Putin agreements that would take all nuclear weapons off high alert, which gives both leaders only a few minutes to decide whether such alarms are authentic or false before launching massive retaliation; adopt a reassuring mutual doctrine of no-first-use of nuclear weapons; and move quickly toward radical reductions of those weapons on both sides.

科恩继续说,暂且不谈另一场旷日持久的冷战对国内的“进步运动”的后果。反而应该考虑一下核战争的极端存在和真正的危险,正如里根明智地总结:“不能获胜那就永远不要开战”。考虑到最近在夏威夷和日本经历的核导弹来袭的错误警报。这些事件应该迫使所有民主党名正言顺的支持特朗普的前期缓和政策——尽管他们可能有缺陷,并敦促他继续贯彻与普京的协议,将所有核武器取消高度戒备状态——这给双方领导人在发射前大规模报复之前只有几分钟的时间来判定报警是真还是假;采用可靠的不首先使用核武器的共同原则;快速推动双方大幅削减核武器。

But for that to happen, the Democratic Party would need to give American national security a higher priority than its obsession with Russiagate, which is currently very far from the case.

但是要做到这一点,民主党就需要给美国国家安全比痴迷于通俄门开来说更高的优先级,从目前来看遥不可及。

Some Democratic members of Congress seem to understand this imperative, at least privately, but evidently lack the civic courage to speak out. And, to be ecumenical, so do those Republican members and their media who now allege that Russiagate is somehow a function of “Russian propaganda” having been smuggled into American politics.

一些民主党国会议员似乎明白这一点,至少是私下说的,但显然缺乏发表言论的公民勇气。普遍来说,那些共和党的成员和他们的媒体认同这个观点,他们宣称通俄门是走私进美国政治的“俄罗斯宣传“。

Hegel liked to say, “The Owl of Minerva spreads its wings only with the falling of dusk” — that wisdom comes too late. A Hegel-like historical irony may also be unfolding. FDR was the first pro-détente president. Due primarily to today’s Democrats, Trump might be the last.

黑格尔喜欢说:“密涅瓦的猫头鹰在黄昏时分振翅翱翔。”——智慧来得太晚了。类似黑格尔的历史讽刺也可能正在进行。罗斯福是第一个缓和关系的总统。主要是因为今天的民主党人,特朗普可能是最后一个。
(译者注:密涅瓦就是罗马神话中的智慧女神,栖落在她身边的猫头鹰是思想和理性的象征。密涅瓦的猫头鹰在黄昏起飞就可以看见整个白天所发生的一切,可以追寻其他鸟儿在白天自由翱翔的足迹。这句话说明哲学是一种反思活动,是一种沉思的理性。)

By Stephen F. Cohen
Stephen F. Cohen is a professor emeritus of Russian studies and politics at New York University and Princeton University and a contributing editor of The Nation.

Stephen F. Cohen是纽约大学和普林斯顿大学的俄罗斯问题研究和政治学退休教授,是《The Nation》杂志的特约编辑。

This article was originally published by The Nation.  

这篇文章首发于《The Nation》。